Make no mistake about it. One of the biggest concerns for portable producers is the steadily increasing price of diesel fuel,
brought about by the rising cost of oil.
The rising costs of fuel have become part of the rhetoric of the presidential campaign, with Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona
advocating the removal of the federal tax on fuels, 18.4 cents-per-gallon for gasoline and 24.4 cents-per-gallon on diesel,
a move Sen. Barack Obama (D) of Illinois – and the industry – opposes.
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"We have looked at it in terms of jobs and estimate 312,000 jobs would be in jeopardy, so it's a little puzzling for us why
you would do something to depress [the construction] sector of the economy," said Matt Jeanneret, of the American Road & Transportation
Builders Association.
The construction industry is feeling the pinch of rising energy prices, said Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated
General Contractors of America. "Contractors use a great deal of fuel and now they are paying whopping fuel surcharges," he
said. According to Jim Haughey, Reed Construction Data, diesel and gasoline prices are likely to rise as much as 30 cents or more
into the summer before any price rollback occurs. Gasoline prices are already 25 percent higher than a year ago and diesel
prices are up 45 percent over last year.
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The real price for both fuels, after adjusting for inflation, is the highest ever, recently surpassing the previous record
price level in the early 1980s. But there is no reason to expect that either fuel will not be available this year or in 2009
to buyers willing to pay the requested price. This is because a shortage of crude oil is only part of the reason for soaring
fuel prices.
Four factors
According to Haughey, four factors have contributed to the surge in oil prices.
- Oil demand exceeded oil supply for the first time in many years, reducing inventory and pushing prices up sharply as always
happens in an auction market.
- The exchange value of the U.S. dollar fell 11 percent since the beginning of 2007, raising the price of all products whose
prices are set in international markets.
- Significant environmental costs were imposed on refiners who then passed as much of the cost as they could onto fuel users.
- Financial speculators, anticipating rising fuel costs, bought fuel cheap to later sell for a higher price. This process adds
to demand as perceived by suppliers and removes some supply temporarily from availability to buyers. The consequence is higher
prices.
Contractors and shippers should expect fuel prices to decline through the summer and up to Thanksgiving, but this will only
bring gasoline down at most to $3.00/gal. and diesel to $4.00/gal. The new supplies or demand reductions needed to reestablish
generous oil inventories are not in sight for the next few years.